The Strait of Hormuz has pulled global oil prices down from crisis highs, but the cost of Jet A1 fuel in Nigeria remains stuck at ₦3,300 per litre, a figure the Airline Operators of Nigeria say marketers are still demanding.
If AON’s ₦3,300 claim is accurate, the numbers point to a glaring mismatch between crude oil and pump prices, undercutting arguments that the market is waiting for “official communication from Tehran” before adjusting.
The breakdown is simple: In February 2026, before the war disrupted the Strait, Brent crude averaged $63.85 per barrel and Jet A1 sold for about ₦900 per litre to airlines. That put the crude-to-jet fuel ratio at roughly $1 of Brent to ₦14 of Jet A1.
When fighting choked the Strait in March, Brent surged to between $103 and $110 per barrel. Jet A1 followed, spiking to ₦3,300 per litre as AON documented in its April 14 letter to marketers. At that point, the pain at the pump tracked the pain in the Gulf.
But the Strait is open again. As of Thursday, Brent had eased to between $91 and $95 per barrel, a drop of $10 to $12 from the war peak. The war risk premium that drove prices up is now unwinding across global markets.
Yet Jet A1 has not moved. At ₦3,300 per litre, marketers are still pricing as if Brent were trading at $235 a barrel using February’s ratio. If Jet A1 followed crude on the same 1-for-1 basis seen pre-crisis, today’s $91–$95 Brent should translate to ₦1,280–₦1,340 per litre, not ₦3,300.
That leaves a 147% gap between where the price should be under the old formula and where it sits now. It also means current Jet A1 costs remain 42–49% above pre-crisis levels even though Brent itself is only 42–49% above its February baseline.
The gap matters because AON says it can no longer operate under ₦3,300 fuel and has warned of a total shutdown of domestic flights from Monday, April 20. Aviation Minister Festus Keyamo has appealed for restraint and scheduled an emergency stakeholders’ meeting for April 22 in Abuja, but airlines say every day at ₦3,300 bleeds cash.
Marketers, through MEMAN, have questioned the ₦3,300 figure, saying their survey shows prices “more than ₦1,000 cheaper” and urging airlines to seek other suppliers. They also cite higher haulage costs and the special handling aviation fuel requires.
Still, the market signals are clear: the Strait reopened, Brent fell, and traders worldwide have already priced out much of the war risk. For Nigerian operators burning Jet A1 on every takeoff, the question is why the pump price has not started the same descent.
Until it does, the arithmetic remains brutal. February: $64 oil, ₦900 fuel. Today: $95 oil, ₦3,300 fuel. The Strait changed. The crude changed. The Jet A1 price did not.
